Pre-election pendulum for the 2004 Australian federal election

The Mackerras pendulum was devised by the Australian psephologist Malcolm Mackerras as a way of predicting the outcome of an election contested between two major parties in a Westminster style lower house legislature such as the Australian House of Representatives, which is composed of single-member electorates and which uses a preferential voting system such as a Condorcet method or IRV.

The pendulum works by lining up all of the seats held in Parliament for the government, the opposition and the crossbenches according to the percentage point margin they are held by on a two party preferred basis. This is also known as the swing required for the seat to change hands. Given a uniform swing to the opposition or government parties, the number of seats that change hands can be predicted.

Classification of seats as marginal, fairly safe or safe is applied by the independent Australian Electoral Commission using the following definition: "Where a winning party receives less than 56% of the vote, the seat is classified as 'marginal', 56–60% is classified as 'fairly safe' and more than 60% is considered 'safe'."[1]

This Mackerras pendulum includes new notional margin estimates in Queensland, South Australia and Victoria due to boundary redistributions.[2] The newly created Division of Bonner and Division of Gorton are also included on this pendulum with a predicted margin as no election results yet exist for both divisions.

Members in italics have declared they will not contest their seats at the election, or have lost their party's preselection.

Government seats (83)[3]
Marginal
Farrer NSW Sussan Ley LIB 0.1 v NAT
Solomon NT Dave Tollner CLP 0.1
Canning WA Don Randall LIB 0.4
Dobell NSW Ken Ticehurst LIB 0.4
Adelaide SA Trish Worth LIB 0.6
Hindmarsh SA Chris Gallus LIB 1.0
Parramatta NSW Ross Cameron LIB 1.2
Paterson NSW Bob Baldwin LIB 1.4
Herbert Qld Peter Lindsay LIB 1.5
Deakin Vic Phil Barresi LIB 1.6
Eden-Monaro NSW Gary Nairn LIB 1.7
Richmond NSW Larry Anthony NAT 1.7
Hinkler Qld Paul Neville NAT 2.2
McEwen Vic Fran Bailey LIB 2.2
Longman Qld Mal Brough LIB 2.5
Gippsland Vic Peter McGauran NAT 2.6
Moreton Qld Gary Hardgrave LIB 2.6
Page NSW Ian Causley NAT 2.8
McMillan Vic Christian Zahra[a] LIB 2.9
Bowman Qld Con Sciacca[a][b] LIB 3.1
Petrie Qld Teresa Gambaro LIB 3.5
La Trobe Vic Bob Charles LIB 3.7
Makin SA Trish Draper LIB 3.7
Kalgoorlie WA Barry Haase LIB 4.3
Cowper NSW Luke Hartsuyker NAT 4.7
Dunkley Vic Bruce Billson LIB 5.2
Corangamite Vic Stewart McArthur LIB 5.4
Lindsay NSW Jackie Kelly LIB 5.5
Warringah NSW Tony Abbott LIB 5.7 v IND
Fairly safe
Aston Vic Chris Pearce LIB 6.0
Dickson Qld Peter Dutton LIB 6.0
Moore WA Mal Washer LIB 6.0
Leichhardt Qld Warren Entsch LIB 6.4
Blair Qld Cameron Thompson LIB 6.6
Pearce WA Judi Moylan LIB 6.9
Forde Qld Kay Elson LIB 7.0
Robertson NSW Jim Lloyd LIB 7.0
Casey Vic Tony Smith LIB 7.2
Boothby SA Andrew Southcott LIB 7.4
Flinders Vic Greg Hunt LIB 7.4
Forrest WA Geoff Prosser LIB 7.6
Bennelong NSW John Howard LIB 7.7
Wentworth NSW Peter King LIB 7.9
Dawson Qld De-Anne Kelly NAT 8.0
Tangney WA Daryl Williams LIB 8.0
Higgins Vic Peter Costello LIB 8.4
Sturt SA Christopher Pyne LIB 8.5
Macquarie NSW Kerry Bartlett LIB 8.7
Parkes NSW John Cobb NAT 8.7
Menzies Vic Kevin Andrews LIB 8.9
Fairfax Qld Alex Somlyay LIB 9.2
Wannon Vic David Hawker LIB 9.2
Goldstein Vic David Kemp LIB 9.5
Ryan Qld Michael Johnson LIB 9.5
Hume NSW Alby Schultz LIB 9.8
Wide Bay Qld Warren Truss NAT 9.9
Safe
Macarthur NSW Pat Farmer LIB 10.0
Hughes NSW Danna Vale LIB 10.4
Grey SA Barry Wakelin LIB 10.6
Indi Vic Sophie Panopoulos LIB 10.7
Kooyong Vic Petro Georgiou LIB 10.9
Lyne NSW Mark Vaile NAT 11.2
Fisher Qld Peter Slipper LIB 11.8
McPherson Qld Margaret May LIB 12.2
Fadden Qld David Jull LIB 13.1
North Sydney NSW Joe Hockey LIB 13.2
Curtin WA Julie Bishop LIB 13.9
Cook NSW Bruce Baird LIB 14.0
Mayo SA Alexander Downer LIB 14.3
Gilmore NSW Joanna Gash LIB 14.6
Gwydir NSW John Anderson NAT 14.9
Groom Qld Ian Macfarlane LIB 15.1
Maranoa Qld Bruce Scott NAT 15.4
Berowra NSW Philip Ruddock LIB 15.7
Moncrieff Qld Steven Ciobo LIB 16.3
Barker SA Patrick Secker LIB 16.6
Mackellar NSW Bronwyn Bishop LIB 16.9
O'Connor WA Wilson Tuckey LIB 19.1
Mallee Vic John Forrest NAT 20.9
Bradfield NSW Brendan Nelson LIB 21.2
Mitchell NSW Alan Cadman LIB 21.3
Murray Vic Sharman Stone LIB 21.9
Riverina NSW Kay Hull NAT 29.9
Opposition seats (63)
Marginal
Brisbane Qld Arch Bevis ALP 1.0
Kingston SA David Cox ALP 1.3
Wakefield SA Neil Andrew[c] ALP 1.3
Stirling WA Jann McFarlane ALP 1.6
Hasluck WA Sharryn Jackson ALP 1.8
Bonner Qld New division ALP 1.9
Swan WA Kim Wilkie ALP 2.0
Bass Tas Michelle O'Byrne ALP 2.1
Rankin Qld Craig Emerson ALP 2.4
Chisholm Vic Anna Burke ALP 2.7
Banks NSW Daryl Melham ALP 2.9
Greenway NSW Frank Mossfield ALP 3.1
Ballarat Vic Catherine King ALP 3.2
Bendigo Vic Steve Gibbons ALP 3.6
Lowe NSW John Murphy ALP 3.8
Lilley Qld Wayne Swan ALP 4.6
Jagajaga Vic Jenny Macklin ALP 5.3
Lingiari NT Warren Snowdon ALP 5.3
Capricornia Qld Kirsten Livermore ALP 5.5
Cowan WA Graham Edwards ALP 5.5
Melbourne Ports Vic Michael Danby ALP 5.7
Fairly safe
Barton NSW Robert McClelland ALP 6.0
Braddon Tas Sid Sidebottom ALP 6.0
Griffith Qld Kevin Rudd ALP 6.2
Bruce Vic Alan Griffin ALP 6.5
Isaacs Vic Ann Corcoran ALP 6.6
Charlton NSW Kelly Hoare ALP 6.7
Newcastle NSW Sharon Grierson ALP 6.9
Holt Vic Anthony Byrne ALP 7.9
Franklin Tas Harry Quick ALP 8.0
Oxley Qld Bernie Ripoll ALP 8.0
Lyons Tas Dick Adams ALP 8.2
Corio Vic Gavan O'Connor ALP 8.5
Werriwa NSW Mark Latham ALP 8.5
Shortland NSW Jill Hall ALP 8.8
Kingsford Smith NSW Laurie Brereton ALP 8.9
Canberra ACT Annette Ellis ALP 9.4
Safe
Brand WA Kim Beazley ALP 10.1
Fremantle WA Carmen Lawrence ALP 10.7
Hunter NSW Joel Fitzgibbon ALP 10.9
Hotham Vic Simon Crean ALP 11.0
Perth WA Stephen Smith ALP 11.2
Lalor Vic Julia Gillard ALP 12.1
Prospect NSW Janice Crosio ALP 12.8
Fraser ACT Bob McMullan ALP 13.0
Denison Tas Duncan Kerr ALP 14.3
Sydney NSW Tanya Plibersek ALP 15.0
Calwell Vic Maria Vamvakinou ALP 15.1
Throsby NSW Jennie George ALP 15.1
Blaxland NSW Michael Hatton ALP 15.2
Chifley NSW Roger Price ALP 15.3
Maribyrnong Vic Bob Sercombe ALP 15.4
Port Adelaide SA Rod Sawford ALP 16.0
Reid NSW Laurie Ferguson ALP 16.9
Watson NSW Leo McLeay ALP 17.3
Melbourne Vic Lindsay Tanner ALP 19.9
Gorton Vic New division ALP 20.2
Scullin Vic Harry Jenkins ALP 20.3
Gellibrand Vic Nicola Roxon ALP 20.4
Wills Vic Kelvin Thomson ALP 20.6
Grayndler NSW Anthony Albanese ALP 21.3
Fowler NSW Julia Irwin ALP 21.5
Batman Vic Martin Ferguson ALP 25.1
Crossbench seats (4)
Cunningham NSW Michael Organ[d] GRN 2.2 v ALP
New England NSW Tony Windsor IND 8.3 v NAT
Kennedy Qld Bob Katter IND 14.1 v ALP
Calare NSW Peter Andren IND 25.0 v NAT

Notes

a Although the seats of Bowman and McMillan were Labor wins at the previous election, the redistributions in Queensland and Victoria changed them to notionally marginal Liberal seats.

b Con Sciacca was not contesting Bowman in the 2004 election, but rather transferring to contest Bonner instead.

c Although the seat of Wakefield was won by the Liberals at the previous election, the redistribution in South Australia changed it to be a notionally marginal Labor seat.

d Michael Organ was elected in a (b/e) with a margin of 2.2%

See also


References

  1. ^ "Divisional classifications". Tally Room. Australian Electoral Commission. 11 July 2019. Retrieved 3 November 2022.
  2. ^ Kopras, Andrew; Newman, Gerard (2004-06-21). "2002-03 Redistribution of Commonwealth electoral boundaries". Parliament of Australia. Retrieved 5 February 2026.
  3. ^ Carr, Adam. "Members of the Australian House of Representatives Fortieth Parliament". Psephos. Retrieved 5 February 2026.
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