2026 defection and desertion of Iranian security forces

Regime change in Iran is widely considered to depend on defections and desertions from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.[1] So far during the 2026 Iran war, analysts have not found evidence of significant defections among the Iranian security forces, nor among the Iranian government.[a] Analysts likewise have not yet found significant defections among Iranian security forces during the 2025–2026 Iranian protests.[11][12] However, Iran International[13] and former Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi[14] have stated major defections among Iranian security forces are taking place and US officials states that the ongoing pressure on Iran has caused defections within Iran's leadership, and stated that Iran's government is weakening.[15]

On 19 March, Scott Bessent asserted there are signs of internal defections in Iran.[15] In a meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, Donald Trump said there are significant military defections in Iran.[16]

Prior claims of defections

In June 2025, Reza Pahlavi had said that 50,000 were ready to desert the security forces.[17] However, Hooman Majd wrote he could not find any member of the security forces who publicly defected to Pahlavi's side.[18] Western security officials quoted by Washington Post also did not see any defections among high ranking members of the Iranian military.[19]

During the 2025–2026 Iranian protests, Reza Pahlavi's spokesperson said "Tens of thousands have defected already".[14] However, Nate Swanson wrote Foreign Affairs magazine that there were no meaningful defections in either the government or the security services.[11] A report in the Royal United Services Institute also didn't find evidence of high-level defections, and there was no indication of non-compliance or refusal to execute orders among Iranian police and the Basij.[12]

2026 Iran war

Calls for defection

During the 2025–2026 events in Iran US President Donald Trump repeatedly urged members of the Islamic Republic security forces to lay down their weapons in exchange for immunity, or face "certain death".[20][21] On 5 March 2026, he reportedly said: "I’m once again calling on all members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, the military, and the police to lay down their arms," adding that "now is the time to stand up for the Iranian people and help take back your country," as well as "You'll be perfectly safe with total immunity, or you'll face absolutely guaranteed death".[21] President Trump also called upon Iranian diplomats stationed abroad to seek asylum in their host countries and help shape a better future for Iran.[21]

Cases of defection

Sources noted that, as of the first two weeks of the 2026 Iran war there were no significant cases of defections and desertions.[b] However, on 6 March Iran International said during this period "many commanders left their posts".[23]

Mara Karlin, a defense advisor in the Biden administration, said that defections and desertions is "number one indicator" she looks for as the war goes on. As of 11 March, she hadn't seen any significant defections.[7]

The Telegraph and Iran International[24] reported that Evin prison was abandoned by its guards on the 28 February,[25] until the prison was taken over by the NOPO unit, "notorious for killing unarmed women and children with heavy machine guns" during protests, and "responsible for serious human rights violations in Iran".[25][26][27]

On 11 March 2026, The Algemeiner cited a Basij commander who deserted,[28] quoted Maneli Mirkhan, who saw this as evidence of "defection and collapse" within Iran's security forces.[28] Unnamed Israeli officials said there were "isolated" cases of desertion.[29]

On 16 March, The New York Times wrote that there was no evidence of desertion happening in a significant way, and that while many Iranian soldiers were indeed conscripts, those conscripted into service were typically given low-level jobs and not important tasks like carrying out operations.[30] [31] On the same day, Iran International said in some units the rate of desertion was nearly "90 percent".[13]

On 18 March, Kenneth M. Pollack, who formerly served on the NSC, said Iranian security forces "show no sign of faltering".[32]

On 19 March US Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, said the US sees signs of defection within the Iranian weakening leadership. According to him the intensified pressure by the US and Israeli forces, has caused cracks throughout the regime that will continue as more attacks hit Iran's financial assets and key oil infrastructure, ending in the fall of the government.[15] During a meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, Trump said: "There’s a lot of military defections. You have a lot of military defections in Iran . . . I don’t blame them.”[33]

See also

Notes

  1. ^ Attributed to multiple sources:[2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10]
  2. ^ Attributed to multiple sources: [2][3][4][5][6][8][9][10][22]

References

  1. ^ Jansen, Michael (28 February 2026). "Regime change in Iran unlikely without mass defections from military". The Irish Times.
  2. ^ a b Graham-Harrison, Emma (12 March 2026). "We attacked Iran with no clear plan for regime change, Israeli security sources say". The Guardian. There have been no signs of Iranians taking to the streets or significant defections from security forces
  3. ^ a b "'Odsečete jednu glavu, izraste nova': Kako su vladari Irana stvorili sistem koji ih održava na vlasti" ['You cut off one head, another grows': How Iran's rulers created a system that keeps them in power]. BBC Serbian. 12 March 2026. we hardly see any defections
  4. ^ a b "Iran war becomes contest of who can take most pain". The Pioneer. 12 March 2026. So far, the Islamic Republic has been able to keep its leadership and military cohesive and in control
  5. ^ a b "Is the stability of the Iranian regime in danger?". Institute for National Security Studies. 12 March 2026. However, it seems that at this stage, these strikes are not sufficient to undermine the internal cohesion among the security forces, their ability to function
  6. ^ a b "US intelligence says Iran government is not at risk of collapse, say sources". Reuters. 11 March 2026. The intelligence reporting underscores the cohesion of Iran's clerical leadership
  7. ^ a b Karlin, Mara (11 March 2026). "Can Iran's regime survive the war?". Brookings Institution. is anyone defecting? Is anyone pulling away from the military, pulling away from the security services, and either taking their weapons and staying home or taking their weapons and acting against the regime? I haven't seen much on that front whatsoever.
  8. ^ a b "The six pillars keeping Iran's regime standing". The Beiruter. 11 March 2026. Second, elite cohesion remains relatively strong.
  9. ^ a b "A long road to the end: The death throes of Iran's regime could last for years". The Times of Israel. 10 March 2026. for now, there have been no significant defections from the army or other security forces
  10. ^ a b "..." The Washington Post. 16 March 2026. Nonetheless, officials and analysts say, there are no overt signs of cracks or defections within Iran's power structure.
  11. ^ a b "How America's War With Iran Backfired". Foreign Affairs. 2026. The regime's horrific crackdown in January produced no meaningful defections from the regime or security services
  12. ^ a b "Is Iran at a Tipping Point? Protest, Military Escalation and Regime Survival". www.rusi.orghttps. Archived from the original on 2026-03-01. Retrieved 2026-03-17.
  13. ^ a b Abedi, Hooman (2026-03-16). "Military adviser appointment by Khamenei Jr draws online mockery". www.iranintl.com. Retrieved 2026-03-17.
  14. ^ a b Roston, Aram; Brown, Cate (2026-03-11). "Iranian exile factions vie for US leaders' blessing to lead Iran". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved 2026-03-17.
  15. ^ a b c "Treasury chief says US sees signs of 'defections' within Iran". www.aa.com.tr. Retrieved 2026-03-19.
  16. ^ "Home". Washington Examiner. Retrieved 2026-03-19.
  17. ^ Wintour, Patrick (2026-01-14). "Why western diplomats are wary of predicting end days for Iran's regime". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved 2026-03-17.
  18. ^ Briefing, The Intercept (2026-01-23). "Protests and Power Plays: From Tehran to the Arctic Circle". The Intercept. Retrieved 2026-03-17.
  19. ^ "Israeli warning call to top Iranian general: 'You have 12 hours to escape'". The Washington Post. 2025-06-23. ISSN 0190-8286. Archived from the original on 2025-06-24. Retrieved 2026-03-18.
  20. ^ "Trump Calls for Defections in Iran - But Will the Military Break Away?". iranwire.com. Retrieved 2026-03-08.
  21. ^ a b c "Trump Calls On Iran Forces To Lay Down Arms, Civilians To Revolt". Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty. 2026-03-06. Retrieved 2026-03-08.
  22. ^ Press, The Associated (2026-03-09). "Mojtaba Khamenei, son of former supreme leader, named successor". CTVNews. Retrieved 2026-03-18.
  23. ^ "Conscripts say commanders abandoned them in bases after Khamenei's killing". Iran International. 2026-03-06. Retrieved 2026-03-08.
  24. ^ Sinaiee, Maryam (2026-03-05). "Fears grow for Iranian prisoners as war raises risk of another Evin disaster". Iran International. Retrieved 2026-03-08.
  25. ^ a b "British couple jailed in Iran live in fear of US bombs after guards flee".
  26. ^ "Iran's Counter-Terror Special Forces (NOPO)". UANI. Retrieved 2026-03-08.
  27. ^ "Tehran's Evin Prison Falls Under Special Forces Control as Officials Flee". caspianpost.com. Retrieved 2026-03-08.
  28. ^ a b Algemeiner, The. "'Nothing to Save': Defections, Command Breakdown Grip Iran's Security Forces as US-Israel Strikes Pound Regime". Algemeiner.com. Retrieved 2026-03-11.
  29. ^ "As hopes of regime change in Iran fade, Netanyahu faces political test". www.bbc.com. 2026-03-13. Retrieved 2026-03-18.
  30. ^ "16 Reader Questions on the War in Iran and Our Reporting, Answered". The New York Times. 2026-03-16. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved 2026-03-17.
  31. ^ "As hopes of regime change in Iran fade, Netanyahu faces political test". www.bbc.com. 2026-03-13. Retrieved 2026-03-17.
  32. ^ Pollack, Kenneth M. (2026-03-18). "How to Raise the Odds of Regime Change in Iran". Foreign Affairs. ISSN 0015-7120. Retrieved 2026-03-18.
  33. ^ Quarshie, Mabinty (2026-03-19). "Trump boasts 'a lot' of military defections in Iran". Washington Examiner. Retrieved 2026-03-20.
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